Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 0.151215 0.178995 0.211609 0.253036 0.304692 0.367556 4.507374e-01
2025-08-10 0.112521 0.144655 0.186446 0.245798 0.329614 0.446403 6.263255e-01
2025-08-17 0.084836 0.116574 0.161467 0.231579 0.342108 0.516604 8.282389e-01
2025-08-24 0.069271 0.101223 0.150125 0.233861 0.381288 0.646534 1.204079e+00
2025-08-31 0.057402 0.088605 0.139893 0.235592 0.423058 0.807820 1.770036e+00
2025-09-07 0.048664 0.078986 0.132242 0.240120 0.474979 1.027228 2.698178e+00
2025-09-14 0.041729 0.070882 0.125300 0.244405 0.531821 1.308040 4.197277e+00
2025-09-21 0.035246 0.062196 0.115174 0.239209 0.567482 1.576797 6.200467e+00
2025-09-28 0.027991 0.050626 0.096644 0.209314 0.526855 1.596607 7.320044e+00
2025-10-05 0.024847 0.046518 0.092728 0.213402 0.586586 2.032736 1.200761e+01
2025-10-12 0.022640 0.043879 0.091413 0.224124 0.677349 2.731885 2.208180e+01
2025-10-19 0.020518 0.041005 0.088884 0.230978 0.763802 3.584737 4.097901e+01
2025-10-26 0.018485 0.038062 0.085803 0.236441 0.858639 4.758785 8.332191e+01
2025-11-02 0.016345 0.034473 0.080237 0.232146 0.913394 5.880336 1.590174e+02
2025-11-09 0.014279 0.030696 0.073306 0.220698 0.928575 6.815434 2.830383e+02
2025-11-16 0.013026 0.028687 0.070786 0.224375 1.032028 9.096007 7.579040e+02
2025-11-23 0.011914 0.026830 0.068268 0.227287 1.141012 12.165719 2.467164e+03
2025-11-30 0.011005 0.025337 0.066482 0.232688 1.280330 16.877662 1.254910e+04
2025-12-07 0.010194 0.023960 0.064724 0.237706 1.432446 23.635036 1.342469e+05
2025-12-14 0.009288 0.022172 0.061235 0.233396 1.511439 30.120274 3.453817e+06
2025-12-21 0.008029 0.019229 0.053344 0.204865 1.346585 27.940869 8.883054e+06
2025-12-28 0.007524 0.018340 0.052184 0.209266 1.499568 39.705468 NaN
2026-01-04 0.007171 0.017832 0.052218 0.220100 1.747502 63.279292 NaN